Vladimir Putin has been the President of Russia since 2000, with only one short period between 2008 and 2012, where he served as the countries Prime Minister instead, due to the constitution of Russia limiting the presidency to two consecutive terms.
From the beginning he cultivated the image of a strongman: The media and the countries elite under his control, his leadership was not to be questioned. He made sure that the Russian medias coverage of him showed him always being in control, lecturing other government officials on live TV, with supreme knowledge of almost everything. The countless images of Putin riding a horse topless or posing with rifles were part of this, too.
It was never questioned that Putin was an autocrat, who only has his own interests in mind, not those of his countries citizens. While almost a quarter of Russians live in poverty, he owns several mansions, yachts, and is believed to be a multi-billionaire.
While Putin is certainly not as all-knowing as Russias state media made him out to be, even in western countries most would agree that he was a rational, cool-minded strategist. In foreign affairs, after a short period of convergence at the beginning of his presidency, he acted as an adversary to the west. He managed to leverage Russias natural reserves to maximise the countries influence despite its dwindling economy, one of the weakest in Europe in terms of GDP per capita, and intervened in many foreign conflicts throughout the years, like the syrian war, to keep Russias status as a global power. As a former KGB agent, he was seen as a strategic mastermind, someone who gets his way most of the times. Even if many in the west disagreed with his politics, most respected him.
Now, in the wake of the invasion in Ukraine, it seems like he has lost his mind. After Russia annexed the Crimea in 2014, western countries imposed sanctions and condemned Russias actions. But ultimately, the West could not do much to stop Putin, and the Crimea remained in Russias control.
The reason for the annexation of the Crimea, as well as the current invasion of the Ukraine, is Russias desire to keep their influence over its western neighbour. Before the protests of 2014, that led to a new, democratically elected pro-western Ukrainian government, Russias influence on the country was large, thanks to its pro-russian government. Putin always believed that the protests that led to the resignation of the former pro-russian government in Ukraine were orchestrated by the West, and he refused to give up control over the country, which he sees as a part of Russia due to the two countries shared history and ethnicity.
The Ukrainian governments continued push for closer ties to the EU and NATO led Putin to plan the invasion of the country, to get rid of the current pro-western goverment and to install a new Russia-friendly puppet goverment. The annexation of the Crimea, and the Wests restrained response, led Putin to believe he had nothing to fear from the NATO allies. Sure, he was aware that more sanctions would be a result, but he did not expect more serious reactions.
The idea that Putin seriously believed that he could invade a sovereign, non-aggressive nation and face no greater consequences, is mind-boggling. To think that Putin really believed he could get away with the invasion shows how removed from reality Russias president has become.
After the first few days of the invasion, suggestions appeared that russian soldiers were told that they would be greeted by the Ukrainian people with flowers, happy that they would be "freed" from their "oppression" by the supposed "neo-nazi regime" that governs the Ukraine. This was the same reasoning the Russian goverment used to justify the invasion, that they would merely step in to liberate the oppressed Ukrainian people. Initially, this was believed to be the usual propaganda used by the Russian state. But new reports have hinted that the Russian leaders, especially Putin, seriously believed this notion. Putin could not imagine the people of Ukraine to fight back against the invaders and that there would be such a massive backlash from the international community. He believed the invasion would progress quickly, resulting in a speedy victory, with little or no resistance by Ukrainians.
The question is: How could Putin have such little idea of what is actually going on? The only possible answer: He lives in a parallel reality, in which Russia is the most powerful nation on earth, and the NATO countries are the oppressor, with Russia being the only hope of those suffering the supposed oppresion. NATO and the West are the bad guys, and Russia is the only rational actor.
When he adressed his nation on TV to explain the "special operation", as Russia officially refers to the invasion, his speach was incoherent and confusing, filled with half-truths and outright lies. After allowing no dissenting opinions for years, even his closest advisors are scared to tell him the truth, which has led to Putin having no idea of the actual real political environment in the Ukraine, the western world and even his own country. When the invasion did not go as planned, it was reported that he was frustrated and extremely angry, and is increasingly becoming more erratic.
Putin has suffered the fate that most dictators suffer: When you allow now opposing views, people tell you only what you want to hear, and you end up having no idea of what is actually going on.
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